Varningar, Passage Islands

Special Weather Statement issued May 6 at 2:39PM AKDT by NWS Juneau AK Beginning Tuesday afternoon, a pair of systems will move into the panhandle, bringing with them windy conditions and heavy rain at times. Model guidance has come to consensus on the arrival of an initial front which will begin moving into the outer gulf coast and the southern panhandle Tuesday afternoon as it sweeps up from the South, before advancing North through the evening and overnight hours. Widespread rainfall, and gusty conditions will occur as the system moves through before onshore flow takes over on Wednesday. The onshore flow will prove to be a harbinger of another system, one which will bring between 1-3" of rain across the panhandle, with the greatest totals for the N half. There is more spread in ensemble guidance with this system, but it is looking increasingly likely to be largely focused on the northeast Gulf Coast, including the Icy Strait Corridor initially as a frontal band with an associated plume of moisture arrives on Thursday. Heavy rain is expected at times from Icy Bay down through Sitka. The band of moisture will shift eastward Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, weakening as it traverses SE AK before largely falling apart as it approaches the southern panhandle. River rises are possible for the northern half of the panhandle with this second system, but no significant flooding is anticipated.